Estimating and predicting multivariate volatility thresholds in global stock markets (replication data)

DOI

We propose a general double tree structured AR-GARCH model for the analysis of global equity index returns. The model extends previous approaches by incorporating (i) several multivariate thresholds in conditional means and volatilities of index returns and (ii) a richer specification for the impact of lagged foreign (US) index returns in each threshold. We evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting power of our model for eight major equity indices in comparison to some existing volatility models in the literature. We find strong evidence for more than one multivariate threshold (more than two regimes) in conditional means and variances of global equity index returns. Such multivariate thresholds are affected by foreign (US) lagged index returns and yield a higher out-of-sample predictive power for our tree structured model setting.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022319.0711191099
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:776096
Provenance
Creator Audrino, Francesco; Trojani, Fabio
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2006
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics