Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.

The aims of this project, which ran from November 1978 to October 1981 were: a) to survey the intuitions of chance and the concepts of probability possessed by English school pupils aged 11 to 16 years residing in the East Midlands region. b) to establish patterns of development of probability concepts and to relate these to other mathematics concepts. A special Probability Concepts Test was devised over a two year period, entailing six pilot versions before achieving the definitive form.

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Variables Altogether about four thousand pupils were involved in the testing although ultimately only 2930 comprised the final 'Sample'. Pupils in East Midlands state comprehensive mixed schools aged 11 to 16 years (i.e. in normal school years 1 to 5) were tested on a class basis with: i) Probability Concepts Test (about 1 hour) ii) NFER AH2 Test of General Reasoning Ability (about 1 hour) The mathematics teachers of the sample pupils were asked to supply details of each pupil's mathematical ability (M.A.) on a ten-point scale.

No sampling (total universe)

Educational measurements