Expecting the unexpected: Stressed scenarios for economic growth (Replication data)

DOI

We propose the construction of conditional growth densities under stressed factor scenarios to assess the level of exposure of an economy to small probability but potentially catastrophic economic and/or financial scenarios, which can be either domestic or international. The choice of severe yet plausible stress scenarios is based on the joint probability distribution of the underlying factors driving growth, which are extracted with a multi-level Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) from a wide set of domestic/worldwide and/or macroeconomic/financial variables. All together, we provide a risk management tool that allows for a complete visualization of the dynamics of the growth densities under average scenarios and extreme scenarios. We calculate Growth-in-Stress (GiS) measures, defined as the 5% quantile of the stressed growth densities, and show that GiS is a useful and complementary tool to Growth-at-Risk (GaR) when policymakers wish to carry out a multi-dimensional scenario analysis. The unprecedented economic shock brought by the COVID19 pandemic provides a natural environment to assess the vulnerability of US growth with the proposed methodology.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2024100.1525366766
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:779837
Provenance
Creator González-Rivera, Gloria; Rodriguez-Caballero, C. Vladimir; Ruiz, Esther
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2024
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics