Fiscal targets: A guide to forecasters? (replication data)

DOI

We formulate and estimate empirical models for a selection of EU countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland) to show that ex-ante government (consumption) targets convey useful information about ex-post fiscal developments, even if the track record of governments meeting their respective targets is low. The use of targets is particularly valuable when there is limited information about its implementation, e.g., at the beginning of a fiscal year, when observed data are scarce. Thus, forecasters would be well advised to use fiscal targets as a guide in creating projections, despite the findings of a well-established literature that reports that, ex-post, governments tend to induce politically motivated biases in policy targets.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2023025.1617015713
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:776829
Provenance
Creator Perez Quiros, Gabriel; Perez, Javier J.; Paredes, Joan
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2023
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Design; Economics; Fine Arts, Music, Theatre and Media Studies; Humanities; Social and Behavioural Sciences