Granger Causality and Regime Inference in Markov Switching VAR Models with Bayesian Methods (replication data)

DOI

In this paper, we derive restrictions for Granger noncausality in MS-VAR models and show under what conditions a variable does not affect the forecast of the hidden Markov process. To assess the noncausality hypotheses, we apply Bayesian inference. The computational tools include a novel block Metropolis-Hastings sampling algorithm for the estimation of the underlying models. We analyze a system of monthly US data on money and income. The results of testing in MS-VARs contradict those obtained with linear VARs: the money aggregate M1 helps in forecasting industrial production and in predicting the next period's state.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022326.0703547574
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:775457
Provenance
Creator Droumaguet, Matthieu; Warne, Anders; Woźniak, Tomasz
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2017
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics