Information gains from using short‐dated options for measuring and forecasting volatility (replication data)

DOI

We study the gains from using short-dated options for volatility measurement and forecasting. Using option portfolios, we estimate nonparametrically spot volatility under weak assumptions for the underlying asset. This volatility estimator complements existing ones constructed from high-frequency returns. We show empirically, using the market index and Dow 30 stocks, that combining optimally return and option data can lead to nontrivial gains for volatility forecasting. These gains are due to diversification of the measurement error in the two volatility proxies. The information content of short-dated options, not spanned by the current spot volatility, is of limited relevance for volatility forecasting.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022327.072232
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:775153
Provenance
Creator Todorov, Viktor; Zhang, Yang
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2022
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics