Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change (replication data)

DOI

The aim of this paper is to assess whether modeling structural change can help improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We conduct a simulated real-time out-of-sample exercise using a time-varying coefficients vector autoregression (VAR) with stochastic volatility to predict the inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate in the USA. The model generates accurate predictions for the three variables. In particular, the forecasts of inflation are much more accurate than those obtained with any other competing model, including fixed coefficients VARs, time-varying autoregressions and the na‹ve random walk model. The results hold true also after the mid 1980s, a period in which forecasting inflation was particularly hard.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022320.0730035100
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:775742
Provenance
Creator D'Agostino, Antonello; Gambetti, Luca; Giannone, Domenico
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2013
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics; Social and Behavioural Sciences