Understanding the Fisher equation (replication data)

DOI

It is argued that univariate long memory estimates based on ex post data tend to underestimate the persistence of ex ante variables (and, hence, that of the ex post variables themselves) because of the presence of unanticipated shocks whose short-run volatility masks the degree of long-range dependence in the data. Empirical estimates of long-range dependence in the Fisher equation are shown to manifest this problem and lead to an apparent imbalance in the memory characteristics of the variables in the Fisher equation. Evidence in support of this typical underestimation is provided by results obtained with inflation forecast survey data and by direct calculation of the finite sample biases. To address the problem of bias, the paper introduces a bivariate exact Whittle (BEW) estimator that explicitly allows for the presence of short memory noise in the data. The new procedure enhances the empirical capacity to separate low-frequency behaviour from high-frequency fluctuations, and it produces estimates of long-range dependence that are much less biased when there is noise contaminated data. Empirical estimates from the BEW method suggest that the three Fisher variables are integrated of the same order, with memory parameter in the range (0.75, 1). Since the integration orders are balanced, the ex ante real rate has the same degree of persistence as expected inflation, thereby furnishing evidence against the existence of a (fractional) cointegrating relation among the Fisher variables and, correspondingly, showing little support for a long-run form of Fisher hypothesis.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022319.0708311325
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:776154
Provenance
Creator Sun, Yixiao; Phillips, Peter C.B.
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2004
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics