STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION FOR LONG-TERM INVESTORS: PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY AND PRIOR INFORMATION (replication data)

DOI

We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on the long-run risk for three asset classes: stocks, bills and bonds. Using a Bayesian vector autoregression with an uninformative prior we find that parameter uncertainty raises the annualized long-run volatilities of all three asset classes proportionally with the same factor relative to volatilities that are conditional on maximum likelihood parameter estimates. As a result, the horizon effect in optimal asset allocations is much weaker compared to models in which only equity returns are subject to parameter uncertainty. Results are sensitive to alternative informative priors, but generally the term structure of risk for stocks and bonds is relatively flat for investment horizons up to 15?years.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022321.0713190672
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:775666
Provenance
Creator Hoevenaars, Roy P. M. M.; Molenaar, Roderick; Schotman, Peter C.; Steenkamp, T.B.M.
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2014
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics