EVALUATING REAL-TIME VAR FORECASTS WITH AN INFORMATIVE DEMOCRATIC PRIOR (replication data)

DOI

This paper proposes Bayesian forecasting in a vector autoregression using a democratic prior. This prior is chosen to match the predictions of survey respondents. In particular, the unconditional mean for each series in the vector autoregression is centered around long-horizon survey forecasts. Heavy shrinkage toward the democratic prior is found to give good real-time predictions of a range of macroeconomic variables, as these survey projections are good at quickly capturing endpoint shifts.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022320.0732855917
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:775704
Provenance
Creator Wright, Jonathan H.
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2013
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics