This study models the evolution of the French electric vehicles fleet depending on different parameters, such as production or recycling capacities, average lithium amount per vehicle, using system dynamics. Following the European Union's 2023 decision to ban internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035, France has focused on securing critical raw materials, including lithium, to support its electrification goals. The system dynamics model incorporates the target growth of the French electric vehicles fleet, lithium extraction from a newly established mine, and recycling rates mandated by European regulations. The results show that reaching the 2050 target is not the only issue: maintaining the fleet at a stable state is not evident if the three parameters mentioned above are not balanced. This study concludes that the European Union’s legal targets are not enough to ensure the perennity of the electric vehicles fleet.

Vensim PLE, 10.2.2