Reassessing growth vulnerability (replication data)

DOI

This paper replicates the results of Adrian et al. (2019) that GDP growth volatility is mainly driven by the lower quantiles of the distribution which is predicted by the financial condition. It extends their study by estimating the model with the IVX-QR estimator of Lee (2016) and double weighted estimator of Cai et al. (2022) considering that the financial condition index is highly serially correlated. Both models are estimated with the smoothed estimating equation approach of Kaplan and Sun (2017). The results show that the findings of Adrian et al. (2019) are robust to possible bias due to the existence of persistent predictors. The out-of-sample forecasting exercises suggest that methods that are robust to the existence of persistent predictors can improve forecasting performance at the lower quantiles of the GDP growth distribution.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2023175.1023353913
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:777913
Provenance
Creator Cho, Dooyeon; Rho, Seunghwa
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2023
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics