Data collection of 73 semi-structured interviews with business leaders on their attitudes towards Scottish independence and decision-making under different constitutional scenarios. The research methods that this project applied were inductive, semi-structured, qualitative interviews designed to surface those uncertainties that are of most concern to business leaders and the extent to which uncertainties are likely to impact on business decision-making. Business leaders were asked a range of questions pertaining to what, if any, uncertainties the independence debate posed to their businesses, whether it presented opportunities or risks to their business operations or strategies, if it had any material impact on business decision-making, or whether it might under different constitutional scenarios, and if they had been contingency planning. The interviews were transcribed verbatim, and the data was then coded based on patterns that emerged naturally from the data. This report presents the findings from 73 semi-structured interviews into the future of the UK and Scotland with senior business leaders in medium and large companies in six industries of strategic importance to Scotland. They include electronics and technology, energy, engineering and industrial manufacturing, financial services, food and drink, and life sciences. Evidence from independent, politically-neutral studies of business leader’s attitudes towards Scottish independence is relatively consistent. Uncertainty over the currency (with a strong preference for Sterling), EU membership (with a strong preference for remaining in the EU), regulation (with a strong preference for having a common regulatory framework with the rUK), taxation (with a preference for competitive taxation, consistency with the rUK and stability) and the general trading environment, poses a significant challenge to business. The perceived risks associated with such uncertainties expressed by business leaders are highly specific and directly concern business activity. An average of half of business leaders’ surveyed cannot identify any opportunities that independence would present for their businesses. Of those able to identify opportunities, they are less specific or unspecific and tend to relate more to the economics and politics of the debate. Only a small minority can identify an opportunity for business investment and growth. A majority of business leaders indicate that the potential costs and risks of independence to business outweigh the perceived benefits and opportunities that might occur. Unsurprisingly, PLC companies headquartered in Scotland appear to be more affected than companies headquartered outside of Scotland. Companies supplying to the MoD also report that independence could pose a challenge to their business. A significant number of medium and large companies have the majority of their trade in the rUK (typically 90% rUK, and 10% in Scotland), and appear far more affected than companies whose trade is mainly in Scotland, or is diversified globally. Medium sized, privately owned companies appear more willing to absorb downside risk than PLCs, the latter of who are also concerned about shareholder value. Medium sized, foreign-owned companies trading predominantly in a global market indicate they are less affected by the constitutional debate than PLCs trading primarily in the rUK. Business leaders of smaller medium-sized, private companies exporting globally, and smaller firms whose trade (both customers and suppliers) is predominantly in Scotland are the most likely to emphasise the opportunities presented by the possibility of Scottish independence. Business attitudes towards Scottish independence are clearly influenced by a combination of where the business is domiciled, customer location, headquarter jurisdiction and ownership structure. This report also reviews two other surveys of business attitudes towards Scottish independence. In all three studies reviewed here, approximately 10% of business leaders indicate they may move business activity out of Scotland in the event of a yes outcome.

Data was collected from semi-structured interviews. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data was then coded using interactive coding methods. Patterns emerged from the data through the iterative coding methods. Coding was checked by a second coder to ensure the robustness of the methods. Patterns were then clustered and labelled.